Ode to Nate Silver
Republicans are stunned at their 2012 election losses, which is
astonishing as the famous odds maker, Nate Silver, precisely
predicted the outcome. He failed this year in only one senate
race where Heidi Heitkamp, a Democratic candidate for Senate,
pulled a win in N Dakota, a solidly red state. The Republicans
should have paid attention to Nate
Silver, and the Huffington
Post pollsters, and all the election predictors which
invariably pick the winner - gas station coffee cups, Holloween
masks, campaign button sales, and the likability factor.
- Is Election Predictor Nate Silver A
Witch?
November 7, 2012
http://techcrunch.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-as-software/
- And Nate Silver is a scientist.
One whose ability to predict the outcome of elections is
so precise, it’s nearly indistinguishable from magic. He
crunches massive data sets to come to his conclusions.
- The Mitt Romney Electoral College Big
Win Forecast That Fizzled
November 7, 2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/mitt-romney-electoral-college-win_n_2093207.html
- The University of
Colorado political science professor who mined economic
data to predict that Republican nominee Mitt Romney would
win the presidential election with 330 electoral votes
today joked. the professors had forecast electoral wins
for Romney in the battleground states -- including
Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Iowa, Virginia and
Ohio, all states that were claimed by President Barack
Obama on Tuesday night. The model underestimated Obama by
about 5 to 6 percentage points in the swing states. Nate
Silver, who runs the New York Times-hosted FiveThirtyEight
blog, has been heralded for accurately calling all 50
states correctly.
But instead, the Republican’s had their own number crunchers,
and were dashed when the results came in. Karl Rove, who
presided over Republican elections when the Diebold voting
machines were in place, with no paper trail and flipping totals,
was left red faced trying to explain how he could have deployed
$300,000,000 in donor funds while delivering only 1% of expected
results. Perhaps he expected some dirty tricks to work, and they
failed to deliver.
- Mitt Romney 'Shellshocked' After Lost
Election
November 8, 2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/mitt-romney-lost-election_n_2095013.html
- As returns came in and
battleground states went into President Barack Obama's
Electoral College column, they felt their paths to
potential victory narrowing. The campaign was unprepared
for this in part because it had ignored polling that
showed the races favoring Obama. Instead, it turned to its
own internal "unskewed" polls, which it believed more
accurately reflected the situation on the ground. They
didn't. On the eve of the election, a number of polling
aggregators, including HuffPost's Pollster and New York
Times' FiveThirtyEight, showed Obama with a huge
statistical advantage over Romney.
- Karl Rove, American Crossroads Spin
GOP Election Losses
November 8, 2012
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/08/karl-rove-american-crossroads_n_2092523.html
- No one lost as much on election
night as Karl Rove. Although he wasn't running for office,
his Crossroads organizations spent more than $300 million
on Republican candidates in the 2012 election, with some
of the biggest spenders in the conservative movement
putting their hopes - and dollars - in the care of Rove.
Combined, his groups were the largest single outside force
of the 2012 election. The results were bleak. According to
the Sunlight Foundation, American Crossroads, Rove's super
PAC, saw just a 1 percent return on its investments.
Nate Silver was pilloried by the Republicans, despite his
superb reputation during prior elections.
- Fantasyland
November 9, 2012
http://nymag.com/news/frank-rich/gop-denial-2012-11/index1.html
- Conservative commentators
disgorged thousands and thousands of words to impugn
Silver as a liberal hack, accusing him of slanting the
facts to fit a political bias. Freud couldn’t have
imagined a clearer case study in projection. For backup,
the anti-Silver forces turned to the likes of Jay Cost of
The Weekly Standard and Real Clear Politics, whose
learned, lengthy, and chart-laden explanations of why
Silver and the polls were wrong could be considered
scientific in the same way creation science is. An even
sadder case was Michael Barone, the once-respected
co-author of The Almanac of American Politics who in 2008
compared Sarah Palin to FDR and who this year abandoned
his fact-based standard for a faith-based standard
underestimating minority turnout; he predicted a 315
electoral-vote victory for Romney. Like Rove, Barone
called nearly every battleground state wrong. (The
professional pollster most admired by the right, the
GOP-leaning Rasmussen, didn’t bat much higher.) Silver got
all 50 states right. Some of Silver’s detractors didn’t
bother to concoct their own bogus analyses but just tried
to defame and bully him.
Per the Zetas, there was never any question. They predicted an
Obama win in July, 2012. And the Puppet Master put his muscle
behind a fair election again, countering fraud.
ZetaTalk Prediction
7/23/2012: The
rich are considered the 1%, with those affected by draconian
austerity measures the 99%. Do the math.
ZetaTalk Prediction
10/27/2012: Given
the well documented history of Republican attempt to
manipulate the Presidential election, how will the 2012
election fare? During the 2000 election, it was abundantly
clear that massive numbers of votes for Gore were dumped. Jed
Bush was the Governor of Florida, and had promised the state
to his brother. And when the State Supreme Court ruled that a
recount should occur, the Republican leaning US Supreme Court
stepped in to stop the recount. Gore lost the Presidency by a
count of some 537 votes, though had won the popular vote by
300,000. By 2004 the Republicans won due to manipulation of
the totals by the Diebold voting machines. Since recounts were
impossible without paper trails, the election of Bush once
again stood.
The enraged Puppet Master, who
wanted Bush out of office for any number of reasons, stepped
into the fray in 2006, with the assistance of ourselves and
Nancy interpreting our words, to ensure that the will of the
people prevailed. This procedure, so very successful, was
repeated in 2006 and 2008, else the popular Obama would never
have won, and in 2010. We predicted in July that Obama would
win in 2012, and this prediction still stands, despite
Republicans in state government positions attempting to
suppress votes and the hiring of firms that destroy voter
registration forms. Voter suppression has been countered by
injunctions from federal judges, in the main, and the criminal
destruction of registration forms likewise countered with
exposure and arrests.
But by appearances, Romney is
getting the popular vote, so why would he not win? The polls
are not accurate, heavily skewed by Rasmussen and other
deliberately right leaning polling firms. This is deliberate
so that if the Republicans manage to manipulate the vote
counts the public will not be surprised. Remove these errant
counts from the polling averages and you see the true leaning
of the public. Despite these attempts, the electoral map,
based on polling averages, shows that Obama will win handily
and the odds makers have never said otherwise. Any plans to
manipulate the outcome is known by us, and we and Nancy are
working with the Puppet Master to ensure a valid election.
Big and Bold
As frequently happens with photos of the Planet X complex
around the Sun, several different photographers in different
parts of the world captured the same massive and intensely
bright Moon Swirl above the Sun at the same time in early
November. As the Pole
Shift ning blog shows, photos taken in Idaho on 11/8/2012
at 4:51 pm, Malaysia on 11/5/2012 at 11:59 am, and Italy
on 11/6/2012 at 1:53 pm show a particularly bright Moon
Swirl making an appearance above the Sun. Note that the slant of
the ecliptic changes during the day, slanting in the Northern
Hemisphere from lower left to upper right in the early morning,
to straight across at high noon, to upper left to lower right in
the evening. Thus the orb seen in Idaho at sundown is likely the
same orb Alberto and Malaysia captured at noon.
Bow Stress
The N American continent is being forced into a bow shape
during the 7 of 10 plate movements, Mexico pulled to the West
while Alaska is held in place firmly by the flat top of the
plate, which cannot roll. Endless examples of this bow stress on
the N American continent have been documented, as Issue
191 shows in 2010 and Issue 301
details in July, 2012. The recent example of the Louisiana
sinkhole in Issue 309 is certainly a
result of the bow stress.
ZetaTalk Explanation
2/10/2006: The
giant plates of N America and Eurasia are locked against each
other, unable to rotate against each other due to their shape.
Slip-slide along the West Coast, measured as a creep by
geologists, is due only to slight adjustments along that edge
of the plate, primarily due to adjustments within the small
plates to the west of the N American plate, which move to
accommodate pressure. The N American plate does not move, pre
se, but other dramas occur. New England is pulled to the east
while Mexico is pulled to the West, so the New Madrid is put
under slip-slide stress where one half, east of the
Mississippi, will move toward the NE while the other, west of
the Mississippi, moves toward the SW.
But nothing could be more clear than the simultaneous bow stress
on each end of the bow
between October 24, 2012 to November 8, 2012 – from Guatemala to
the Queen Charlotte Islands off coast from British
Columbia. There were hints this was coming on September 5,
2012 with the 7.9 quake on the Costa Rico coastline, detailed in
Issue 316 of this newsletter.
-
DATE MAG REGION
08-NOV-2012 02:01:51 6.3 VANCOUVER ISLAND REGION 30-OCT-2012 02:49:02 6.2 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 28-OCT-2012 18:54:21 6.3 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION 28-OCT-2012 03:04:10 7.7 QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS REGION
-
DATE MAG REGION 07-NOV-2012 16:35:47 7.4 NEAR COAST OF GUATEMALA 24-OCT-2012 00:45:36 6.6 COSTA RICA
-
Echoing the significant quakes on both ends of the bow are
buoy 42412 off the tip of Mexico and buoy 46419 off
Vancouver, showing a rise in the ocean floor in those
regions. Can the New Madrid adjustment be far behind?
ZetaTalk Description
3/19/2011: As
both sides of the New Madrid Fault Line are pulled in opposite
directions, the entire fault line operates as a slip-slide
fault line. In that the land just to the west of the
Mississippi River moves the greatest distance, to ease the
pressure on the bow currently formed by the N American
continent, this creates a void, a stretch zone void, causing
the land there to drop, as we have explained. This is the
region currently experiencing precursor earthquakes, the
region considered the New Madrid region. But the movement is
not yet happening, the void not yet being created. Instead,
occasional slight slip-slide adjustments are being made, deep
within the rock strata, causing minor quake swarms or
sympathetic jolts in neighboring areas. The rock fingers are
slipping, but not losing their grip.
When the plate tearing starts
in earnest, these slip-slide jolts will be huge, and rise up
to the magnitude 8-9 range, as we have stated. These quakes
will ride up to the bend in the fault line just south of Lake
Michigan. Earthquake damage is primarily done when the rock
close to the surface is affected, as is known by man. The
quality of the rock along the fault line thus affects the
shaking and resulting damage to the surface. A glance at a map
of the geology of the fault line shows that the rock along the
Mississippi at Arkansas and Missouri is younger, laid down by
sediment, and tends to fracture broadly, thus relaying
earthquake jolts over a vast area. Broad fractures also cause
post quake adjustments, so the quake includes rock shuffling,
all of which translates to a larger magnitude for the area.
Thus, the worst of the New Madrid adjustment will be felt in
this area.
The rock strata that hold
Illinois and Indiana is older, and more solid. Fracturing of
the rock tends to be a single jolt, not the multiple
ricocheting jolts that magnify any adjustment in the rock
strata experienced by the rock strata in Arkansas and
Missouri. The magnitude will still be considered high, perhaps
an 8, but the shaking will not last as long, and the damage
therefore not as great. Were the bend in the fault line just
south of Lake Michigan not at a point where the southeastern
part of the US is dropping away from the Seaway, the damage
along the Seaway would be much greater. The Equator is
expanding in the center of the Atlantic, and has already, by
this time, ripped open between S America and Africa. The
southeast thus drops toward this void, relieving pressure and
friction along the slip-slide in the fault line as it runs
under the Seaway.
By the time the New Madrid
adjustment reaches the bend, land to the west of the
Mississippi has already dropped, pulled away, but this
actually puts more pressure on the fault line as it runs under
Michigan. This holds, momentarily, while the southeast starts
to drop toward the Atlantic Rift, and then pulls apart
sharply. Here, beneath Michigan, the jolts will also not last
for long, and will also be considered up to magnitude 8. The
fault line thence along the Seaway will unzip, along rock
strata borders already established. Where stretch zones such
as this normally have adjustments that are basically silent,
they do much damage. The unzipping creates crevasses and
landslides and sinkholes, and when this occurs under cities is
devastating. The quakes will be considered much less than
magnitude 8 but the damage will be greater, with consequent
lost of life and infrastructure. A building that has collapsed
because of a large jolt is no different than one that has
collapsed because the ground beneath it sank.
As is known, there is a fault
line running up along the East Coast of the US that attaches
to the New Madrid fault line in the Gulf. Both fault lines
touch there, in the Gulf, and when the New Madrid adjusts
there is a sympathetic adjustment up along this fault line.
During the last New Madrid adjustment, church bells rang in
Boston and cracks appeared in buildings in Savannah, GA and
Charleston, SC. These changes are caused by earthquakes
equivalent to a magnitude 4-5 or less, not serious.
Mammoth Teen Unthaws
Mammoth carcasses, frozen solid, continue to be discovered in
Siberia. In 1999 an adult was discovered in Khatanga, inside the
Arctic circle. In 2007 a baby mammoth was discovered in northern
Siberia. And now, also in northern Siberia, a mammoth
teen has been discovered. These large elephants are herbivores. What did they
eat for their last meal? They clearly did not starve to death.
They clearly did not die of old age. So what killed
them?
- Well-Preserved Mammoth Carcass Found
in Siberia
October 5, 2012
http://news.yahoo.com/well-preserved-mammoth-carcass-found-siberia-121929576.html
- Prof. Alexei Tikhonov of the
Zoology Institute in St. Petersburg announced the finding
of the mammoth, which was excavated from the Siberian
permafrost in late September near the Sopochnaya Karga
cape, 3,500 kilometers (2,200 miles) northeast of Moscow.
Woolly mammoths are thought to have died out around 10,000
years ago, although scientists think small groups of them
lived longer in Alaska and on Russia's Wrangel Island off
the Siberian coast. Their bodies have mostly been found in
the Siberian permafrost.
- Baby Mammoth Discovery Unveiled
10 July 2007
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6284214.stm
- The six-month-old female calf was
discovered on the Yamal peninsula of Russia and is thought
to have died 10,000 years ago. The animal's trunk and eyes
are still intact and some of its fur remains on the body.
In terms of its state of preservation, this is the world's
most valuable discovery. The 130cm (4ft 3ins) tall, 50kg
Siberian specimen dates to the end of the last Ice Age,
when the great beasts were vanishing from the planet. It
was discovered by a reindeer herder in May this year. Yuri
Khudi stumbled across the carcass near the Yuribei River,
in Russia's Yamal-Nenets autonomous district. What caused
their widespread disappearance at the end of the last Ice
Age remains unclear.
- Mammoth Comes in from the Cold
Oct 21, 1999
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/481571.stm
- The remains, encased in a 20-tonne
block of ice and soil, with two huge, curled tusks jutting
out, were flown on Sunday, slung beneath a helicopter,
320km (200 miles) to Khatanga, inside the Arctic Circle.
The scientists are using a dry, cold cave at Khatanga to
continue their studies.
This issue was last covered in this newsletter in Issue
33, in 2007. The steady thawing that has taken place in
the Arctic is undoubted a factor in the discovery of these
carcasses, as the smell of decay was a factor in this latest
discovery. But what caused them to be frozen solid for thousands
of years? Here’s a clue. They are estimated, by carbon dating,
to have died out on Wrangle Island in the polar circle only
3,700 years ago, and to have arrived at Wrangle Island 7,390
years ago. Those sound like multiples of the 3,600 year passage
of Planet X! Per the Zetas, 7,200 years ago Wrangle Island
became our N Pole and then this moved to Greenland 3,600 years
ago. It appears the mammoth scrambled onto Wrangle Island to
escape the sloshing Arctic, and then died out eating the
remaining dried grass in the tundra. The young mammoths now
being discovered are estimated to have died 10,000 years ago in
North Central Siberia, another multiple of 3,600 (times three is
10,800 years). Per the Zetas, the crust shifted at that
time to place the N Pole over North Central Siberia. Suddenly
bitter cold, and perhaps flooded to the point of drowning by the
sloshing Arctic, they remained frozen until this day.
- The Mammoth Riders
http://www.geocities.com/gardenofdanu/The_Mammoth_Riders.htm
- Wrangle Island is 120 miles off
the coast of Siberia. Fossil remains of six foot tall, two
ton, woolly mammoths found there have been carbon-dated to
only 3,700 years ago, formerly considered "dwarf"
mammoths, but more recently considered to simply be a
slightly smaller species. The carbon dating of the fossil
remains indicates the mammoths lived on Wrangle Island
from 7,390 BP.
ZetaTalk Explanation
2/15/2002: As
we have stated in ZetaTalk, the prior shift moved the North
Pole from Greenland to its present location. Prior to that, it
was over the East Siberian Sea, having pulled Siberia
northward where the largest number of mammoth dieoff occurred.
ZetaTalk Explanation
7/14/2007: Approximately
10,800 years ago the pole shift that caused the Biblical Flood
occurred, moving Siberia northward and causing a massive
dieoff in the mammoth population. This time frame coincided
with the end of what mankind terms its last Ice Age, which was
in fact just a movement of the crust which placed France under
the Sun again. How could it be that Siberia hosted vast
grasslands for these mammoth herbivores, while at the same
latitude France was frozen! Did the Sun wink off for France,
and back on for Siberia?
Per Velikovsky in his book Earth in Upheaval, chapter on
Extinction, extinctions have happened regularly due to the
periodic passage of Planet X. The mammoth were not the only
species to be stuck by sudden climate change. Our own polar
bears are at risk, for instance, as the Arctic is due to become
very tropical.
- A considerable group have become
extinct virtually within the last few thousand years. The
large mammals that died out in America include all the
camels, all the horses, all the ground sloths, two genera
of musk-oxen, peccaries, certain antelopes, a giant bison
with a horn spread of six feet, a giant beaverlike animal,
a stag-moose, and several kinds of cats, some of which
were of lion size. Animals, strong and vigorous, suddenly
died out without leaving a survivor. The end came,
not in the course of the struggle for existence - with the
survival of the fittest. Fit and unfit, and mostly
fit, old and young, with sharp teeth, with strong muscles,
with fleet legs, and plenty of food around, all
perished. They died as if a wind had snuffed life
out of all of them, leaving their cadavers, with no sign
of degeneration, in asphalt pits, in bogs, in sediment,
and in caverns.
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